Day 2 Conv Outlook

Looks like the have upgraded the severe outlook for April 3rd to a moderate risk for our area.  I know last night it was still at a Slight risk…  Guess we might be having some powerful storms tomorrow at some point.  It must be related to the approaching cold front.  Of course now that I have blogged about it, they will probably miss us entirely and I will be bummed out..!

Link to SPC 2 Day Outlook:  http://tinyurl.com/3arjjh
Here are a few things it has to say:

...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF N TX/OK AND WRN AR
   THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...

BUT OVERALL SETUP SHOULD RESULT IN A
   CORRIDOR OF UNCAPPED...VERY UNSTABLE AIR /SBCAPE AOA 2500 J PER KG/
   NEAR AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN.  AS THE WAVE
   DEVELOPS ESE TOWARD THE RED RVR...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE IN THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
   THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL GROW UPSCALE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
   FRIDAY...WITH SEVERE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
   TORNADOES SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OK/CNTRL TX AND
   INTO AR AND THE LWR TN/OH VLYS EARLY FRIDAY.  ADDITIONAL
   STORMS/CLUSTERS MAY ALSO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
   ACROSS S CNTRL TX AS INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHEN
   ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE.
Wow these might be some good storms...!!!

 

Meso. Disc. #521 Issued

http://spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0521.html

Looks like things might be getting rough around here in a little bit.  According to this it looks like a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch will be issued…

Here is one thing they mention:
THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS.
   THUS…FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AS MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE
   TO GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.  and this
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS.

Outside it’s really humid and clearing up nicely..  =)  Yeah

Edit:  Just got this from the hazardous outlook:
GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…MANY
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY
IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IN ADDITION TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER…VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING.